Ambrosia Software Web Board: An Economists' Guide to Surviving the Apocalypse - Ambrosia Software Web Board

So I was thinking about life after the Inevitable Pending Economic Crash. And I came to the conclusion that probably the two most useful things to have lots of would be cigarettes and condoms. Those are probably going to be the most valuable nonessentials around in a barter economy. Of course at first it'd be good to have lots of food and medicine and all, but once things get straightened out and people are able to provide for their basic survival there's gonna be a bit more of a structured market.

Think about it. Cigarettes are obvious. We can see this in prison already, where cigarettes are commonly used as currency. All those nicotine junkies are really gonna be hurting when Big Tobacco's not around to sell them their deathsticks anymore. Of course Tobacco is a plant and eventually people will start growing it, but that takes time. Not to mention food comes first. So cigarettes will be useful things to have to barter with. Smokers will want them, obviously, and because of their high demand many non-smokers will undoubtedly accept them too in order to use to trade with smokers.

Condoms are a bit less obvious, but once you think about it you can see just how invaluable they'd become. Not everyone smokes, but pretty much everyone has sex. And in a post-Apocalyptic world can you afford an unwanted pregnancy? In a world without steady medical care do you want to risk an STD? The existing antibiotics are going to be given to people with Tuberculosis and staph infections, not to gonorrhea sufferers. Not to mention condoms are an investment that will only increase with time. Tobacco can be grown and people will start to roll their own, but synthesizing latex is much harder and people won't have time to spend on making such nonessentials for quite awhile. Also, cigarettes could be ruined if you get them wet. Foil-wrapped condoms will be OK.

There is the possibility of using other drugs as well, but those are a much riskier investment. Sure, if you've got some crack and manage to find a post-apocalyptic crackhead with lots of stuff you want, you're going to hit the jackpot. The problem is that by then said crackhead will probably have traded away all their good stuff by the time you find them, not to mention they're more likely to get violent than smokers are. Plus, stocking up on crack pre-Crash is dangerous because of its illegal nature. Cigarettes and condoms are legal so nobody's going to arrest you for having stacks and stacks in your closet (but you might get some funny looks!).

Quality Alcohol could be a solid investment (and legal to boot), because people will be eating all their crops at first rather than brewing them. But it won't hold its value as well once people start figuring out how to get lots more plants out of farming. The other problem with alcohol lies in the fact that it takes up a lot of space and is fragile if it's in a glass bottle. Marijuana is legal in some countries but I don't think it'll be that valuable. Probably along the same lines of alcohol, maybe less. Probably depends what sort of society you're trading with. But I'd still imagine that in terms of space, cigarettes and condoms are going to be the most valuable things to stock up on when looking towards a post-Apocalyptic economy.

What about you? Anyone else have any thoughts on the subject? Any considerations I missed or other possibly valuable items you'd want to stock up on for a post-Crash economy?

tl;dr: Buy lots of cigarettes and condoms.

EDIT: Fixing HOLY s### WALL OF TEXT

This post has been edited by Rickton: 25 August 2008 - 04:30 PM

This only really works if you have a mechanism for circulating the cigarettes and/or condoms into the marketplace on a consistent basis. It would be all well and good to have a warehouse full of Marlboros and Trojans, but if you stocked the warehouse in 1999 assuming that the Y2K crash was inevitable and it only came next Thursday, you have a warehouse of stale, dry cigarettes and condoms that went out of date 7 years ago. Not to mention that people would presumably have to work through the existing stock of both items presently in stores and the distribution line before they got to you.

The key here is, thus, to find yourself being a key in the line of distribution of such items as cigarettes and condoms. In such a situation you'd have a large supply of fresh cancer sticks and love socks, along with a potential line for distributing such goods at your market-gouging price levels. The problem here is, of course, higher visibility and defense costs (if I'm looking to loot someplace for cigarettes, I'm looking to that big tobacco and condom distribution center down the road there), but I would think that such concerns would pale in comparison to the profit you'd be making through the sale of your goods should the crash never occur, along with the inherent difficulty of trying to effectively market decade-old condoms, regardless of the desperation of one's customer base.

-Pufer

Cigarettes and Condoms just doesn't sound as good as Cigarettes and Alcohol.

Condoms and Alcohol.

Between the need to repopulate the Earth and establish your clan's dominance over the marauding gangs of mutants attacking passersby for fuel, I think the last thing on your average survivor's mind will be birth control. Between said mutants, food and medicine shortages, The Plague, the robot uprising, and whatever other horrific sufferings your average post-apocalyptic person will endure in their quest for survival, average lifespans are going to be much shorter as well. So people will want to get with the baby making as soon as they can, as was the case in the Middle Ages and in many poorer parts of the world today.

So I'd say cigs and alcohol is a better bet.

edit: Another problem: What is your civilization's collapse is caused by mass infertility? Then you'd look pretty silly trying to hawk your rubbers.

This post has been edited by Veritus Dartarion: 26 August 2008 - 06:37 PM

Veritus Dartarion, on Aug 26 2008, 07:33 PM, said:

Well, I'm not really talking about some sort of pop-sci Apocalypse scenario, I was really talking about in the case of a total economic collapse.

Beyond marketable goods, what marketable skills should one have in surviving such an economic disaster? I'm thinking strong-arm security with be an in-demand market, but am not sure if that's the type of area that one could plausibly get into, especially if the military/police forces start deserting after their paychecks stop coming.

-Pufer

Porn would surely be a high seller. After some kind of economic collapse, there will be no money to pay the porn actors and actresses and so any kind of porn will increase in value.

My collection of 70's and 80's French porn is gonna make me rich

Sorry Jeramiah, but with the internet and all, I doubt that porn is going to be something that people will be paying for.

Especially if the eco collapses, everyone will be looking for cheaper (free) ways of getting it.

zamzx zik, on Aug 27 2008, 11:14 AM, said:

Who says the internet will still be running???

Jeremiah, on Aug 27 2008, 01:12 AM, said:

With all the newly destitute young people floating around on the streets, there would be better ways for those still with money to enter into the sex market. This being one of the reasons why Rickton's condom idea is quality.

-Pufer

Pufer, on Aug 27 2008, 09:00 PM, said:

So, you're gonna be turned on by all the dirty, bedraggled destitutes yeah?

Enter my porno's....

Condoms are generally a good thing to have around anyway for emergencies.

Jeremiah, on Aug 28 2008, 01:27 AM, said:

Ain't nothing a little cleaning up couldn't help. Indeed, if they're that dirty and bedraggled, a shower and a place to sleep could be more than sufficient to get oneself laid.

-Pufer

Pufer, on Aug 29 2008, 03:48 AM, said:

Think what they could have crawling around in their underpants though.

Jeremiah, on Aug 29 2008, 02:55 AM, said:

That's where the condoms come in!

And here I was thinking that this was all hypothetical. I'm going to go buy a few hundred cartons of cigarettes now...

I may not be an economist, but apparently I can predict the future.

Who needs condoms when you have a ziplock bag and a rubber band...

Rickton, on Aug 29 2008, 02:36 PM, said:

Pubic lice go to war with your condoms!

Jeremiah, on Sep 30 2008, 12:59 AM, said:

A razor and shaving cream go to war with your pubic lice!

-Pufer

This post has been edited by Pufer: 30 September 2008 - 03:29 PM

Whoever wins, you lose.

This post has been edited by Rickton: 30 September 2008 - 01:22 PM

I do.

-Pufer

Pufer, on Sep 30 2008, 02:00 PM, said:

I hear they're making an alliance with a lighter.

Jeremiah, on Aug 27 2008, 08:08 AM, said:

It is designed to be highly resilient to network failures due to any number of disasters. Certainly many parts will be down, but I imagine the internet will survive us all.



Anyway, I would definitely stock ammunition. Everyone's going to be stockpiling guns, but bullets aren't an infinite resource. After a few months of fending off rival gangs and attempting to hunt for food, people are going to be getting that sickening click click click. Soon everyone will have an excess of guns but nothing to shoot out of them.

Other than that, I would suggest antibiotics and things like rubbing alcohol and sterile bandages. Painkillers aren't bad either. Multivitamins are okay. Don't bother with any other medical supplies. People will be worrying about infections and pain, not much else besides that.

Gasoline, of course, is always useful.